8. Screwed Up Ideologies #6

Alright from here, you can see how our brain can't understand probability, but this is a part 2 if you'd like to call it that. I had to make this because a friend tells me about his crappy day where his girlfriend did this and that, and he missed the bus and it rained so he had to walk home and blah blah blah. I don't care. He screams at me over MSN. "Let's see how you feel when it happens to you!"  Like dude, first of all, I drive a car...anyways to the point:


Have you heard about the European dude who sleeps with one eye open, on a chair, whilst holding a shotgun? You know, just in case the mafia storms into his house to kill him?
Well hand him a bunch of sheets outlining the data which states the 'death by murder' rate in the city of Switzerland (1 guy dead in the last 10000 years). Heck, he'd have more chance lighting his house on fire or dying via lightning strike, but no he won't change his mind. As a matter of fact, he'll just tell his recount of a story where an old guy named Leon sleeps with one eye open with a pistol by his side, successfully killing the crazy Die Hard terrorists who tried to get him. Funnily, that bizarre example surpasses the data of statistics/probability and all that maths.


Another [true] example lies in the sector of politics (here we go). The great nation of USA spent 1.3 trillion (That's a tad over 22 Bill Gates) on the war of terror in reaction to the 14000 or so deaths from international terrorism from 1975 to 2003. Now I'm pretty good at Maths Extension 2 and that equalizes up to 90 million dollars for each person that was killed. Ain't that a great use of money, good thing they didn't use it for other silly things, like finding a cure for cancer or preventing industrial accidents. Note the sarcasm, industrial accidents cause a high amount of deaths.


These 2 examples above have an emotion tied closely to them. Fear.
As experts point out, "When a strong emotion is tied to an unlikely event, our ability to understand the word, 'unlikely,' goes out the window."


So maybe next time, think a bit before you tell someone: "Let's see how you feel when it happens to you." Because you'll look like a dud and chances are, it will never happen in their life.

4. Screwed Up Ideologies #2

Alright second belief that ticks me off...

Some people's brains are hopeless when it comes to calculating probability.

They have this messed up philosophy that if something can happen, THEN IT PROBABLY WILL.

Yet they have no idea what 'probably' even defines.

See those kids who don't excel in academics yet have a liking for sports?

Millions of them (around the world) think they're going to play top-league sports when they grow up, but the thing is, there are only enough jobs for a tiny percentage of them (that's right, to all you kids ripping it in your sports team, YEAH-NAH, that's as far as you're gonna go).

The 2012 belief, about how the world is PROBABLY going to end in that year. Everyone went nuts about how it was true. Like deadset, the news even said "probably!"
The movie 2012 and Jay sean's "2012 (It Ain't The End)" sure doesn't help me prove my case though Zzz...
But far out, astronomers even disregarded the 2012 claim by astronomical observations.
Oh and to any of you nuts who STILL think that the world is going to end in 2012, you should also be making your 11:11 wishes so that won't happen ;)


This way of thinking is often exploited by many to make you lose money JUST LIKE THAT *clicks fingers*
Want an example? 

• The gambling industry. It literally thrives on people's ideology of "Oh! I've seen people get the jackpot and make alot of money! Oh! And in that movie "21" the guy never lost any money! So why can't I win?!"
• Another example? Mountains of cocaine. "C'mon bro! Cocaine is good! The rush is so intense! And only one out of ten people get addicted to it! So what're the chances it's going to be you?!" Yup, and while you slowly die, they get rich. Heaps fair ;)

Hollywood doesn't help me make my point either as I mentioned with the movies above ("2012" and "21") and films which are about the one-in-a-million shot being made (which is basically every single friggin movie). Nobody wants to hear about the underdog team who lost 25-2, so they produce movies where the underdog wins with that one-in-a-million basketball shot which happens to be scored the moment the clock hits 00:00. Absolutely pathetic, yet you don't stop to think about that do you?


So any time you buy a lottery ticket, play some roulette, or enter a financial agreement with the President of Sierra Leone, you're walking with the failed mindset.